In the 1600s, Peruvian fishermen noticed that, towards the end of the year, there would be an unusual warming of the coastal waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which often led to a crushing scarcity of fish. Due to its proximity to Christmastime, they named it El Nino, which is Spanish for “the Christ Child.”

According to the undefined, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, has officially declared that El Nino is here.

The NOAA is a US federal organization under the Department of Commerce. It focuses on the condition of the ocean’s waterways, as well as the atmosphere. It issues daily forecasts, as well as severe weather warnings.

According to the undefined, El Nino is a natural climate pattern, with the common effect of the warming of the Pacific Ocean. The temperature changes disrupts normal wind patterns, which in turn pushes warm water towards the Americas instead of Asia. This triggers heavy rains in the Americas, while causing droughts in Oceania and Africa. It has the potential to intensify already present flooding and droughts.

On June 11th, 2026, the NOAA said that the temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific have gone 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average usually seen, which is favorable for El Nino. They say there is a 63–percent chance that this year’s El Nino may be much stronger than the ones before because of sea level temperatures climbing 2 degrees Celsius above what people have seen in previous years. Other forecasts have predicted that it will be even 3 degrees above average, setting a record high.

According to the director of the International Pacific Research Center and an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, Malte Stuecker, this could be disastrous. He says, “In a warming world, [the temperature change] would be pretty catastrophic.”

The effects of El Nino vary depending on location. For example, in the US, on the East Coast, the El Nino is actually a good thing, as it suppresses the hurricane season. In fact, Colorado State University has scaled down their hurricane forecasts, showing the lowest activity since 2015. Meanwhile, on the West Coast, it can cause high tide flooding, as well as algae blooms.

The effects of El Nino are expected to cause economic shifts globally. Overall, poorer countries will be vulnerable to food shortages caused by either flooding or droughts. This risk is intensified by current events, such as the US’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing fertilizer shipments to be stopped. According to Mohamed Adow, who is the director of Nairobi’s Power Shift Africa—a nonprofit climate and energy research institute— El Nino means, “failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices and families pushed to the edge.”