El Niño is coming soon, NOAA flashing warning signs

Last Thursday, meteorologists reported an El Niño in the tropical Pacific. They say that it will likely worsen over the course of the next few months, and it might alter weather patterns worldwide.

An El Niño is a weather phenomenon that happens regularly every few years when trade winds shift and the Pacific Ocean warms up. El Niños often change weather patterns, and they can sometimes exacerbate droughts or floods. All this is added to the effects of climate change. El Niños typically reach their peak strength during winter in the northern hemisphere, and cause higher temperatures the next year. For example, the previous El Niño, in 2023 and 2024, made these two years the record hottest years. “In a warming world, that would be pretty catastrophic,” says Malte Stuecker.

For poorer communities that already have to grapple with climate change, this makes them extremely vulnerable. The negatives don’t stop there. El Niños exact a huge economic toll as well. Floods and droughts mean reduced crops and income for a lot of people.

However, El Niños aren’t all bad. In a way, they might be good for the United States. El Niños dramatically reduce the chance of hurricanes. Following the last El Niño, hurricane levels in the US are now the lowest on record since 2015. Even though El Niños are good in that respect, NOAA says that they might increase algae and flooding on the West Coast.

This El Niño is already taking effect. Meteorologists already detect a 0.9 Fahrenheit (0.5 Celsius) increase in average temperature over the last few months. NOAA says that there is a 63% chance of this El Niño making the temperature higher by 2 degrees Celsius, but some forecasts say this event will raise the average temperature by over 3 Celsius, which breaks the world record.