El Niño Predicted to be Strongest in 75 Years

This year’s El Niño is forecasted to be the strongest in terms of sea surface temperatures since 1950, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) started recording El Niños. And because El Niño began earlier this year, it’s been causing severe weather changes and even starvation globally.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon where trade winds, steady and reliable winds that blow across the Earth’s equatorial region from east to west, weaken. Trade winds normally push warm water toward Asia and pull cold water near South America. During El Niño, without strong winds to push it, the warm water flows back toward the coast of Americas. The warm waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south from its original position, making Northern U.S. and Canada drier and warmer while the Southeast becomes wetter than usual.

Over the last 3 months, temperatures have risen very high, with about a 63 percent chance to go above 2 degrees Celsius. The El Niño is forecasted to be even hotter than previous strong El Niños in modern history. By analyzing climate models, data, and heat trends, the NOAA predicts an 81 percent chance that El Niño conditions will constantly be above 2 degrees Celsius. Daily ocean temperatures are expected to be more than 3 degrees celsius above normal. This is a significant change for the ocean because it is an extreme marine heatwave with the potential of destroying marine ecosystems and causing severe weather.
Many countries have already faced effects from this stronger El Niño. Panama, usually one of the wettest countries with humidity at about 80 percent year-round, hasn’t experienced a storm since May. Because of the dryness, many are concerned about the water shortage in the Panama Canal which is shallower by 34 percent from its normal depth. Shallower water leads to larger ships having to separate into many smaller ones, causing traffic on the water and slowing transportation.

“At the very least, it’s going to be as bad as the worst we’ve seen before, possibly much worse,” said Steven Paton, who works at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama. 

Ethiopia to face their driest summer in four decades while India is experiencing the fifth driest June since 1901, despite the Monsoon season starting already. In Guatemala, rainfall is 85 percent lower than usual. Usually, when the El Niño hits, areas in east Africa experience heavy rainfall from November to January. However, because this year’s El Niño started early, the countries in the area are experiencing a lot less rainfall.
negatively affect areas that use water to farm. Parts of Southeast Asia are facing dry summers which slows down the process of planting crops in many countries. This year’s El Niño is predicted to cause an estimated 50 million more people across the world to experience acute hunger. Additionally, parts of Southeast Asia are facing dry summers which slows down the process of planting crops in many countries, like Thailand.
Scientists are questioning whether this year’s severe El Niño is caused by human-caused climate change or simply just a natural occurring phenomenon, and if it will only get worse.

“What we’ll see in 2027 is a sneak peek of what the new normal will be in 2035,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth. “We’ll see things that have never happened before in our history in terms of temperature, drought conditions, extreme heat.” 

Sources:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/el-nino
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/climate/el-nino-early-onset-effects.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/21/panama-canal-reduce-shipping-el-nino-drought

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