The recent school shooting and the overturning of Roe have made the Texas governor’s race higher stakes. A history-making spring in Texas is laying the groundwork for a contentious final four months in the race to lead the state, where Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott remains the favorite but is confronting his toughest Democratic opponent yet in Beto O’Rourke.

Abbott still has most of the advantages in the race: money, for one, and a midterm election that is expected to favor Republicans across the country. The governor’s allies argue that voters are more worried about the skyrocketing inflation and illegal immigration — and O’Rourke cannot separate himself from President Joe Biden, who is very unpopular in Texas.

After the mass shooting in Uvalde and the Supreme Court decision, O’Rourke capitalized by hosting rallies where huge crowds swarmed despite the sweltering heat. And shortly after the shooting, O’Rourke confronted Abbott at a news conference that led to an uproarious scene. It is unclear whether recent events have shaken things enough to completely shift the popularity of the democrats in Texas, but it is quite possible.